While Medicaid Enrollment Rates Increase, States Face Financial Pressure to Decrease State Medicaid Spending

Last week, the Kaiser Family Foundation released a report indicating a large jump in state Medicaid enrollment from June 2008 to June 2009.  The report said that the 7.5 percent increase was the greatest one-year jump in enrollment rates ever, with over 3 million people joining the public health program funded jointly by the federal government and individual state governments.  The reason for the increase  is thought to be that because more people became unemployed due to the economic crash, more individuals turned to Medicaid for health coverage.  However, because the economic downturn meant less revenue entering into state budgets, state Medicaid programs have not been able to keep up with the rise in new enrollees.

During a convening of state governors at the White House this week, state officials will likely raise the issue of Medicaid spending. The issue is pressing in light of the impending funding cut when stimulus money from the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 will expire in December of this year.  The governors will likely ask that the stimulus funding be continued until states can somehow make up for their large current budget deficits.  In addition to asking for more money, the governors will also likely discuss the feasibility of health care reform efforts.  With both House and Senate versions of health care reform proposing increases to state Medicaid programs to ensure the coverage of more uninsured individuals, the state governors would, understandably, like to know where the money for such expansion would come from.

The National Association of State Medicaid Directors estimates that states’ budgets will fall  short  $140 billion in the next fiscal year.  This means even less money for the likely further increase in Medicaid enrollment to come this year, as Medicaid enrollment generally lags behind unemployment.  To account for the deficit, many states are planning to reduce their Medicaid programs. USA Today finds that three categories of such reductions exist:

• California, Arizona and Virginia propose reducing who’s eligible. In Arizona, 310,000 people would lose coverage. California also wants to increase premiums.
• Michigan, Tennessee, Massachusetts and others propose eliminating benefits. Masachusetts’ elimination of restorative dental services would save $56 million, says Medicaid director Terry Dougherty.
• Texas, Pennsylvania, Louisiana and others propose cutting payments to hospitals, doctors or nursing homes. Several states are considering new taxes on hospitals as a way to avoid cutting these payments.

States that accepted stimulus money to expand their Medicaid programs in 2009 are restricted from any such cuts that would affect low-income enrollment.  However, if the stimulus funding is not extended, some states are planning on heightening eligibility requirements.  For other states, while decreasing hospital and doctor reimbursement seems like the worst possible option– given that many doctors have already stopped accepting  Medicaid patients due to what they deem to be an insufficient rate of reimbursement– many states’ officials find that the only other viable option they have is raising taxes.  Many state leaders refuse to increase taxes in fear of the political backlash come November.

Realizing the need for health care reform to help manage the burden of paying for health care, state governors have stated a desire to be part of the health care reform conversation.  Many have already expressed their dislike for individual mandates, which they believe will drive more individuals to state Medicaid programs.  For the most part, however, the governors want reform and they want it now, finding that they simply can’t afford to wait another year.

It is also worth noting that an underlying issue from these new numbers is whether the Medicaid program is actually a good prototype for expanding health care coverage.  Drew Altman, President and CEO of Kaiser, put in perspective Kaiser’s report as well as the concerns of public spending that were sparked by the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services’ projections for 2009-2019– which forecast that public spending on health care will surpass private spending.  He noted that while spending in public health insurance programs would increase, the cost-benefit would be better, since per capita costs on health care were lower in government-run programs than in private insurance programs.  According to Altman, such numbers did not undermine health reform efforts, but instead denoted “the need to control health care costs in the public and the private sectors alike.”

Why Primary Care in Medicare Matters

Why should we care about primary care in Medicare?  Early in the reform discussions, preventive and primary care was emphasized; in addition to extending medical care to all, reform would also implement preventive measures to keep them well.  In the current reform scrum, some are back peddling pretty fast, and in the course of finding “consensus” points (often focusing on cost-savings), we might lose conceptual coherence.

Ken Thorpe’s new Health Affairs article on chronic care patients in Medicare offers sound research and helpful analysis.  Thorpe’s data point toward a subtle explanation for health inflation keyed not to the increased cost of high-tech interventions, but to a shift in the conditions for which treatment is provided:

Our results highlight important changes in the medical conditions accounting for the rise in spending among beneficiaries over time. The most notable changes were in spending on a handful of chronic conditions: diabetes, kidney disease, hyperlipidemia, hypertension, mental disorders, and arthritis.

Thorpe has long argued that our health care delivery and finance system is stuck in a 20^th Century of acute care, while our 21^st Century needs have migrated toward chronic care.  As he has argued previously, these chronic care needs call for care at a human scale, including care management and supportive community-based care.  But he also points out that many chronic conditions are at least partially preventable, and that attention and resources should not be directed only to treating these conditions, but also to forestalling their incidence.

Prevention is, then, vital to any health care system.  But haven’t studies repeatedly shown that preventive care is not cost-effective?   Sorting this out requires that we step back and assess not only what “prevention” means, but also what we value in health care.

Preventive care can usefully be separated into three categories, as Ron Goetzel  (an Emory University colleague of Thorpe’s) has described.

• Primary prevention: Health promotion measures focus on lifestyle and simple interventions such as vaccinations to keep people from developing sickness; often cost-saving.
• Secondary prevention: Targeting people with preconditions for illness, including genetic or lifestyle markers, with screening technology, maintenance drugs, in order to forestall or prevent the manifestation of the condition; rarely cost-saving, in part because it is often applied to low-risk populations. Worth it? That depends on the design of the intervention and one’s metric for assessing health care value.
• Tertiary prevention: In this context, coordinated care management for those with chronic illness.  Properly implemented, chronic car management could “flatten the curve,” but is unlikely to be “cost-saving.”

So, whether “prevention” can save money (a claim Thorpe’s paper doesn’t make) is a complicated question.  In addition, it is often a poorly framed one. Explicitly or implicitly, cost-based objections to prevention often suggest that preventing one illness simply means that the person will die of something else, or less simplistically, that keeping people alive longer is cost-increasing, not cost saving.  Steven Wolf has elegantly responded to both objections:

[S]keptics of prevention argue that everyone dies of something; preventing demise serves only to allow a different disease to generate illness and spending. However, the aim of health promotion and disease prevention is not to prevent the inevitable but to “compress” morbidity, maximizing health until death.

Another common criticism is that prevention rarely saves money; it costs society if people live longer. The same applies to disease treatments. Health is a good; it is not purchased to save money. Health is a good that costs too much under the current medical care system, a problem of inefficiency that calls for wiser resource use, such as spending less per health unit gained (lower cost-effectiveness ratio). Disease prevention offers a way to improve health with low cost-effectiveness ratios and to also modulate disease rates. To reject health promotion and disease prevention because they do not save money (i.e., cost-effectiveness ratios are not negative) misses the point. (citations omitted)

Advocates who would shift our systemic emphasis to prevention and management of chronic illness, then, are not naïve about cost implications.  To the contrary, they address the issue head-on, with a three-step argument:

• The purpose of our system is or should be the maintenance of or restoration to high levels of functioning consistent with a fulfilling life.
• Our needs have largely shifted from acute to chronic interventions, and our system should shift to meet those needs.
• In preventing or managing chronic illness, as with all interventions, we should carefully examine the capacity of methods to meet our needs, and to demand value for those being served.

Applying this sort of argument to primary care, Goetzel elsewhere advocates skepticism of attempts by medicine to turn prevention into a high-tech enterprise:

We have medicalized prevention and health promotion in this country so that most people believe that only doctors in clinical settings can deliver these services. Although effective in many cases, this approach is the most expensive method of delivering prevention. If we expand our arsenal of potential interventions to include environmental, ecological, and policy changes, in addition to individually focused counseling and coaching programs, we can change the cost-effectiveness equation.

Thorpe’s article has garnered much-deserved attention, although it is tempting to think of his data in only cost-benefit terms.  That is not true to Thorpe’s conclusion, which is consistent with efforts to redirect attention from the business enterprise of health care to the health needs of Americans:

The U.S. health system remains predicated on providing acute, episodic care that is inadequate to address the altered patterns of disease now facing the American public. Our results highlight the need for prevention and care outside doctors’ offices and hospitals designed to address the changing needs of patients at risk for or living with chronic disease and, often, multiple comorbidities. As [reformers] continue their efforts to reshape the U.S. health system, they must address these changed health needs through evidence-based preventive care in the community, care coordination, and support for patient self-management.

Taking the Fraud Out of Medicare Expansion

One of the ways the Obama administration hopes to pay for health care reform is through policing Medicare fraud.  It is estimated that the Centers for Medicaid and Medicare Services (CMS) spends $60 billion a year on fraudulent claims.  According to Senator Grassley of Iowa, the federal agency received warnings of fraud by watchdog organizations, but did not respond to most of them; these warnings fell upon the CMS’s shoulders under the Bush Administration.

A report by the Department of Health and Human Services finds that much of the fraud in the Medicare Prescription Benefit program could have been avoided through better management of the companies that were hired by the federal government in 2006 to investigate and monitor the fraud.  Grassley notes that the companies, called Medicare drug integrity contractors or Medics, were essentially a waste of money because they were never given the proper information to perform the audits.  The New York Times reports that the Bush Administration did not allow for the audits by Medics to proceed until its final few months in office.

Under the current model, scams to get Medicare reimbursement for non-existent services are easier than one might think.  Just this past July, a couple who owned a medical business was indicted for submitting false reimbursement bills to the CMS for power wheelchairs that they claimed had been lost or destroyed during Hurricane Katrina.  Other scams include medical suppliers billing Medicare for equipment that was never given to patients, creation of fake medical supply companies, and acceptance of illegal kickbacks for referring Medicare patients to unneeded services.

Solutions to fraud, however, are not as clear-cut as one might wish.  For example, there is a worry that over-policing the CMS will lead to valid claims being denied at greater rates. Also, enforcement and punishment are issues.  Some health care companies have been able to escape criminal prosecution by paying restitution amounts for the fraudulent claims.  Finding restitution to be an insufficient deterrent to would-be fraudsters,  Senator Arlen Specter of Pennsylvania wants to see scammers put behind bars. But there is also something to be said for the realization that the “Arthur Anderson solution” is really no solution at all.

Another interesting aspect to consider here is that the CMS finds that provisions of the House bill intended to reduce Medicare fraud will not save all that much money.  In spite of this (or perhaps because of it) many of our leaders have demanded that some action be taken to reduce Medicare fraud– even Sarah Palin says fraud is an issue.  One hopes that the Obama administration will learn from its predecessor’s mistakes (if in fact they be such) when it comes to creating watchdogs such as Medics, but then muzzling and not feeding them.

Crackdown on Fraud and Abuse in Detroit, Miami Signals Health Care Reform as a Priority of the Obama Administration

Federal agents arrested dozens of people in Miami and Detroit yesterday morning for allegedly submitting Medicare claims totaling $50 million for treatments that were unneeded and sometimes never provided, according to The Washington Post.

Later in the day, the Justice Department unsealed criminal indictments against 53 people in connection with the arrests. In Detroit, the indictments focus on costly HIV/AIDS infusion drugs as well as physical and occupational therapy treatments.

According to The Post,

Authorities filed criminal charges against patients, doctors, medical assistants and company owners who allegedly played complicit roles in the fraud schemes. Prosecutors are seeking forfeiture of the criminal proceeds and restitution to the Medicare program.

The action was announced at a news conference held by Attorney General Eric H. Holder Jr., Health and Human Services Director Kathleen Sebelius, and FBI Director Robert S. Mueller III.

We will strike back against those whose fraudulent schemes not only undermine a program upon which 45 million aged and disabled Americans depend, but which also contribute directly to rising health-care costs,

said Attorney General Holder.