Betting on Health Care Reform

At least investors think health care reform will be happening some time soon.  The Wall Street Journal reported that managed care stocks fell after Obama asked Congress to take an up or down vote Wednesday afternoon.  It might be wishful thinking (or dreadful, depending on which way you look at it) for the investors who are moving their investments from managed care plans.  With Congress members still treating health care reform as a game of cat and mouse, whether a vote will happen and whether the vote will be for reform is yet to be determined.

Take for instance Nathan Deal, a Republican from Georgia, who is purposely postponing his resignation from the House until a vote on health care happens so that he can get his nay vote in.  Then, there is the promise from Senate Republican leader Mitch McConnell to repeal health care reform before it has even been passed.  And despite Wall St. estimations to the contrary,  with the complications of reconciliation, the prospect of getting a bill that actually creates a mass exodus out of managed care seems at least somewhat iffy.

Interestingly, as the Washington Post revealed on Wednesday, private insurance companies, such as the infamous WellPoint, will be the primary beneficiaries of a failed health care reform attempt.  As Ezra Klien stated:

The argument is simple: Wellpoint’s business model is uncommonly concentrated in the individual and small-group markets. Those are the exact markets that health-care reform will drastically change. Those are the markets where people get rejected for preexisting conditions, where insurers spend 30 cents of every premium dollar on administration and where rate hikes are volatile and constant. Health-care reform wants to change all of that, and if it does, Wellpoint’s business model will be changed, too.

It would seem, then, that health care reform would not be difficult to carry through in considering who stands to win and who stands to lose if reform is not passed.  One of the major barriers is the Republicans’ animosity towards using reconciliation to pass a final health care bill, an idea they consider foreign to the democratic process.  However, as NPR just reported this past week, reconciliation is not “unprecedented,” and in fact, it has been used many times in the course of our country’s history to pass similar bills.  COBRA, Children’s Health Insurance Program (CHIP), and changes to Medicare have all happened through reconciliation.  Moreover, between 1981 and 2008, 16 out of 21 reconciliation bills were Republican initiatives.

Without a final vote on health care soon, many worry that the momentum will be lost.  Many members of Congress, steadfast in their platform promises, are not helping the process move any quicker.  In the meantime, insurance companies continue to prosper; Americans continue to pay the price.